Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 April 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr,
04 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 01/2057Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/1953Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/1516Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 461 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Apr), unsettled to active
levels on day two (03 Apr) and unsettled levels on day three (04 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 124 Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 130/140/125 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 010/012-014/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 35% |
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