Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 March 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 26 2230 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/0021Z from Region 2305 (S08E05). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar,
29 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 570 km/s at
26/0135Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1135Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/2007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3959 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Mar) and active to minor
storm levels on days two and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 136 Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 011/015-017/025-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 60% | 60% |
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