Viewing archive of Monday, 23 March 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 23/0911Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 698 km/s at 23/0915Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/0434Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/0311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7572 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (26 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Mar 128
  Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar 130/135/135
  90 Day Mean        23 Mar 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  016/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Mar  019/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  014/020-014/018-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%15%
Minor storm20%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm60%45%20%

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