Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 March 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 17/2334Z from Region 2297 (S16W64). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (19 Mar, 20 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 727 km/s at 18/2056Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 17/2302Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at 17/2236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3129 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (19 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (20 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
Class M40%30%20%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton30%20%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Mar 115
  Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar 115/110/110
  90 Day Mean        18 Mar 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  046/118
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Mar  036/053
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  018/025-008/018-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm25%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm60%30%25%

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