Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 March 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/0152Z from Region 2297 (S16W64). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 673 km/s at 17/1045Z. Total IMF reached 35 nT at 17/1336Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -28 nT at 17/1324Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2
pfu at 17/0045Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (18 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (19 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (20
Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev are likely to cross threshold on days
one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Proton | 60% | 60% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 114 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 071/119 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 021/035-015/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 45% | 25% |
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