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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 16/1058Z from Region 2297 (S17W52). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 441 km/s at 16/1957Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/1615Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0522Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 16/0755Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (18 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (19 Mar). Protons are likely to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton60%60%60%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Mar 117
  Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        16 Mar 139

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Mar  011/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  012/015-014/020-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm50%60%50%

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