Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 March 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/0440Z from Region 2297 (S17W25). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at 13/2101Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0348Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and three (15 Mar, 17 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 116
  Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 115/112/110
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  012/015-009/010-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%40%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%40%50%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/02/22X6.3
Last M-flare2024/03/19M1.4
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/03Kp6- (G2)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12003M5.34
22003M2.33
32000M2.29
42003M2.23
52003M2
ApG
1200137G3
2200638G2
3200219G1
4201526G1
5200511G1
*since 1994

Social networks