Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 March 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/0440Z from Region 2297 (S17W25). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at 13/2101Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0348Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and three (15 Mar, 17 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 116
  Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 115/112/110
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  012/015-009/010-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%40%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%40%50%

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