Viewing archive of Friday, 13 March 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 12/2151Z from Region 2297 (S16E00). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 478 km/s at 13/1248Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/1824Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/1125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 144 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
Class M 70%70%70%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Mar 119
  Predicted    14 Mar-16 Mar 120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        13 Mar 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Mar  008/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  015/020-012/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%25%
Minor storm 25%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm 25%30%30%
Major-severe storm 60%45%30%

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