Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 March 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 09/2353Z from Region 2297 (S16E39). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at 09/2109Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0455Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1055 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (12 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (13 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Mar 121
  Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        10 Mar 141

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Mar  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  006/005-013/018-021/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%35%
Minor storm01%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm20%25%50%

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