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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 09/1433Z from Region 2297 (S16E39). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 595 km/s at 08/2325Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2348Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/2050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1148 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Mar 123
  Predicted    10 Mar-12 Mar 125/130/130
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 142

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  007/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  009/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 25%25%25%
Major-severe storm 25%25%25%

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