Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 February 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 458 km/s at 17/1847Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 17/0142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 17/0440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 105 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Feb 119
  Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        17 Feb 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Feb  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%05%05%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%15%15%
Major-severe storm40%05%05%

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