Viewing archive of Monday, 16 February 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 375 km/s at 16/1919Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/1901Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (19 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Feb 118
  Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 120/125/130
  90 Day Mean        16 Feb 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Feb  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  012/015-010/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm35%30%15%
Major-severe storm35%25%05%

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