Viewing archive of Monday, 16 February 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 375 km/s at
16/1919Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/1747Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/1901Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (18 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (19 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 118 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 120/125/130 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 012/015-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 05% |
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