Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 February 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 11 2215 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/0521Z from Region 2282 (N11E31). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (12 Feb, 13 Feb) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 433 km/s at 10/2214Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/1547Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/1059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 460 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M 30%30%20%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 131
  Predicted    12 Feb-14 Feb 125/122/126
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 25%25%25%
Major-severe storm 20%20%20%

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