Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 February 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 09/2335Z from Region 2282 (N14E51). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at 10/0734Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1837Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 295 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Feb 141
  Predicted    11 Feb-13 Feb 140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        10 Feb 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Feb  007/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 25%25%25%
Major-severe storm 20%20%20%

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