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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 09/0607Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 565 km/s at 08/2321Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1943Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 530 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (12 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Feb 146
  Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        09 Feb 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Feb  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

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