Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 February 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
05/0953Z from Region 2277 (S08W32). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
454 km/s at 04/2217Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/1640Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1318Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10953 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Feb, 07 Feb)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 142 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 007/010-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
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