Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 February 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 05/0953Z from Region 2277 (S08W32). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 454 km/s at 04/2217Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/1640Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1318Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10953 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Feb, 07 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (08 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Feb 142
  Predicted    06 Feb-08 Feb 140/140/145
  90 Day Mean        05 Feb 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Feb  011/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  007/010-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 30%30%30%
Major-severe storm 25%25%25%

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