Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 January 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/0452Z from Region 2268 (S10E67). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan,
25 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
544 km/s at 22/0141Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 21/2248Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 21/2248Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (23 Jan, 24 Jan)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (25 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 120 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 130/135/130 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 012/015-012/015-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 45% | 60% |
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