Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 January 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 21/1142Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 552 km/s at 21/1834Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 21/0658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 21/1551Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jan 124
  Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        21 Jan 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jan  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  012/015-012/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm45%45%45%

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