Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 January 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 20/0511Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 389 km/s at 20/1135Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/1636Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/0712Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jan 126
  Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan 125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        20 Jan 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm25%25%25%

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