Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 January 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 14/1258Z from Region 2257 (N07W93). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 14/0005Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/1739Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/1504Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M40%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 142
  Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  011/015-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%30%20%

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