Viewing archive of Monday, 12 January 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 12/1444Z from Region 2255 (S15W68). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 513 km/s at 12/0604Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/0542Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 464 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jan 159
  Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan 175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        12 Jan 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jan  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

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