Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 January 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 10/1133Z from Region 2257 (N07W41). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 483 km/s at 10/1500Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/1549Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/1434Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 977 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (13 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jan 152
  Predicted    11 Jan-13 Jan 155/160/175
  90 Day Mean        10 Jan 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jan  009/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  011/012-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 30%25%25%
Major-severe storm 30%30%20%

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