Viewing archive of Friday, 9 January 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 09/0817Z from Region 2257 (N07W29). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 557 km/s at 09/0309Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/0327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0654Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 226 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jan 151
  Predicted    10 Jan-12 Jan 155/160/170
  90 Day Mean        09 Jan 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  015/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jan  009/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  010/010-009/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 25%25%25%
Major-severe storm 30%30%30%

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