Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 January 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 08/0434Z from Region 2253 (S06W57). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 583 km/s at 08/0040Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 08/0048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/1344Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jan 157
  Predicted    09 Jan-11 Jan 160/165/165
  90 Day Mean        08 Jan 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  023/033
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jan  016/018
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  013/015-010/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 30%25%25%
Major-severe storm 40%30%30%

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