Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 December 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 27/0216Z from Region 2249 (S10W61). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (28 Dec, 29 Dec) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 561 km/s at 26/2103Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/2300Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/0040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
Class M25%25%20%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Dec 134
  Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec 135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        27 Dec 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  015/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Dec  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  008/010-007/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%25%25%

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