Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 December 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
23/2249Z from Region 2242 (S16W85). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (25 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
615 km/s at 24/0328Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 23/2147Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 23/2200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Dec), quiet levels on day
two (26 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 151 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 145/140/145 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 009/015-006/008-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 10% | 20% |
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