Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 December 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
22/2225Z from Region 2241 (S10W47). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (24 Dec) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
542 km/s at 23/1036Z. Total IMF reached 34 nT at 23/1040Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 23/2001Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at
23/1115Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Dec), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (25 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (26
Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (24
Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (25 Dec, 26 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| Class M | 75% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 166 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 160/155/150 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 013/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 012/016-007/015-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 20% | 10% |
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