Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 December 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 17/0451Z from Region 2242 (S18W01). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 454 km/s at 17/0219Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1503Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/0248Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 653 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
Class M65%65%65%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Dec 192
  Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec 190/190/185
  90 Day Mean        17 Dec 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Dec  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  007/008-010/010-014/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%50%50%

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