Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 December 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 16/1140Z from Region 2242 (S19E11). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 487 km/s at 16/0214Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/1235Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 958 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Dec 185
  Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec 185/185/185
  90 Day Mean        16 Dec 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  010/010-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm30%20%20%

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