Viewing archive of Monday, 15 December 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
15/0140Z from Region 2242 (S19E24). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
556 km/s at 15/1855Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 15/0543Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/0152Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1775 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 169 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 010/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 20% |
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