Viewing archive of Monday, 15 December 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 15/0140Z from Region 2242 (S19E24). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 556 km/s at 15/1855Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 15/0543Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/0152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1775 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Dec 169
  Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec 170/170/165
  90 Day Mean        15 Dec 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Dec  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  010/012-010/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm45%30%20%

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