Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 December 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 12/1440Z from Region 2234 (N04W12). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 697 km/s at 12/2059Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 12/0122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 12/1040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2927 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (13 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Dec 154
  Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec 160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        12 Dec 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Dec  015/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  015/018-012/015-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%40%40%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm65%55%55%

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