Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 December 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 09/1024Z from Region 2230 (S14E22). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (10 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 734 km/s at 09/0010Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1848Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1726Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5719 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
Class M20%25%30%
Class X01%01%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Dec 140
  Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 145/155/165
  90 Day Mean        09 Dec 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Dec  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm35%35%10%

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