Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 December 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
06/1244Z from Region 2222 (S20W64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec,
09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
693 km/s at 06/2051Z. Total IMF reached 25 nT at 06/1430Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 06/1826Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 279 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 Dec, 08 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 129 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 009/010-007/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 30% |
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