Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 December 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 02/1555Z from Region 2222 (S19W10). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 648 km/s at 02/0259Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/2144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/2144Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Dec 168
  Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 165/165/160
  90 Day Mean        02 Dec 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Dec  010/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

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