Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 November 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 18/0809Z from Region 2209 (S13E07). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 518 km/s at 18/0121Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2016Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3095 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Nov 167
  Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov 170/175/180
  90 Day Mean        18 Nov 146

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Nov  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  012/012-012/012-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%40%40%

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