Viewing archive of Monday, 17 November 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 17/0907Z from Region 2205 (now around the west limb). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 557 km/s at 17/0331Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1906Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1903Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5723 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Nov) and unsettled levels on day three (20 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
Class M 65%65%65%
Class X 25%25%25%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Nov 168
  Predicted    18 Nov-20 Nov 170/170/170
  90 Day Mean        17 Nov 145

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  018/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Nov  010/013
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  009/010-007/010-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 25%25%30%
Major-severe storm 25%25%40%

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