Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 November 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 16/1748Z from Region 2209 (S15E31). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 706 km/s at 16/0556Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3557 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (18 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
Class M 65%65%65%
Class X 25%25%25%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Nov 172
  Predicted    17 Nov-19 Nov 165/170/170
  90 Day Mean        16 Nov 145

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  013/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Nov  019/025
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  014/018-011/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm 20%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm 25%30%25%
Major-severe storm 50%40%25%

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