Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 November 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 15/2046Z from Region 2209 (S15E45). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 630 km/s at 15/0238Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/1941Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/0021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 206 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
Class M60%60%60%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Nov 161
  Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov 160/160/165
  90 Day Mean        15 Nov 144

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  015/020-011/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm55%40%40%

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