Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 November 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 05/0947Z from Region 2205 (N16E56). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 597 km/s at 05/1939Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 05/0521Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0647Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Nov, 08 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
Class M55%55%55%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Nov 135
  Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        05 Nov 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  012/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Nov  013/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  007/008-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%45%30%

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