Viewing archive of Monday, 3 November 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 03/1153Z from the northeast limb. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov, 06 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached 515 km/s at 02/2137Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/0138Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 02/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 386 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Nov, 06 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (05 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (04 Nov) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (05 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton20%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Nov 125
  Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        03 Nov 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  007/010-009/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%40%30%

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