Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 October 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 22/1428Z from Region 2192 (S12E06). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be high on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 607 km/s at 21/2101Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/1510Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/0454Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11815 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Oct), unsettled to active levels on day two (24 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one through three (23-25 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
Class M 95%95%95%
Class X 55%55%55%
Proton35%40%45%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Oct 216
  Predicted    23 Oct-25 Oct 215/220/220
  90 Day Mean        22 Oct 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  011/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Oct  013/016
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  014/015-012/015-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%20%
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%35%30%
Major-severe storm 40%40%25%

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