Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 October 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/2255Z from Region 2192 (S13E30). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 697 km/s at 21/1308Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/0126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2238 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Oct, 23 Oct) and unsettled levels on day three (24 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
Class M 65%65%65%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Oct 199
  Predicted    22 Oct-24 Oct 205/210/210
  90 Day Mean        21 Oct 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  017/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  012/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  013/015-014/015-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%30%35%
Major-severe storm 40%40%40%

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