Viewing archive of Monday, 20 October 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 20/1637Z from Region 2192 (S13E30). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 606 km/s at 20/1945Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/1616Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/1641Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 296 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (22 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 20%20%20%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Oct 185
  Predicted    21 Oct-23 Oct 195/200/205
  90 Day Mean        20 Oct 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Oct  010/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  015/018-013/015-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 25%30%30%
Major-severe storm 45%40%40%

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