Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 October 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
19/0503Z from Region 2192 (S13E43). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
513 km/s at 19/0426Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 19/1354Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/1741Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 272 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Oct,
21 Oct, 22 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 173 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 010/012-013/015-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 40% | 40% |
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