Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 October 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 08/1651Z from Region 2182 (S16W42). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 387 km/s at 08/2007Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/0900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 08/1014Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 310 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct) with a chance for isolated active periods early on 09 Oct due to an enhanced magnetic field and possible night sector sub-storming. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (11 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Oct 126
  Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct 125/120/115
  90 Day Mean        08 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Oct  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%25%

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