Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 October 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 02/1901Z from Region 2173 (S13W85). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (03 Oct, 04 Oct) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 415 km/s at 02/1646Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1110 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Oct, 05 Oct) and quiet levels on day two (04 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
Class M45%35%20%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Oct 149
  Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct 145/140/140
  90 Day Mean        02 Oct 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Oct  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  007/008-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm25%20%25%

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