Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 October 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
01/0306Z from Region 2172 (S09W69). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (02 Oct, 03 Oct) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (04 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
437 km/s at 01/0602Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2103Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/2302Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1627 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (02 Oct, 03 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (04 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| Class M | 45% | 35% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 155 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
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