Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 September 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 24/2342Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 513 km/s at 25/0342Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/0233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 758 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
Class M45%45%45%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Sep 158
  Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        25 Sep 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  019/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Sep  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  010/012-011/015-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%50%50%

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