Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 September 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 23/2316Z from Region 2172 (S11E36). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 474 km/s at 24/2014Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/1803Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/1827Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 333 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
Class M 35%35%35%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Sep 145
  Predicted    25 Sep-27 Sep 150/155/160
  90 Day Mean        24 Sep 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  018/022
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  015/018-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm 30%30%30%
Major-severe storm 50%50%40%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/07/10Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:129
Current stretch spotless days:11

This day in history*

Solar flares
12002X1.8
22000M3.3
32000M3.0
42002M2.2
52004M2.0
ApG
1200524G1
2201317G1
3200315G1
4200012
5199510
*since 1994

Social networks