Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 September 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/1536Z from Region 2172 (S11E36). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at 23/1309Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/1357Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/1030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Sep, 25 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (26 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Sep 138
  Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep 140/145/150
  90 Day Mean        23 Sep 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Sep  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  008/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm40%30%20%

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